In 2018, the IPCC made clear that the world must be kept below 1.5°C global average temperature rise. The special report Global Warming of 1.5°C showed that it becomes increasingly difficult to solve climate change beyond this threshold, and every tenth of a degree increase in temperature risks multiplying impacts. Some believe the 1.5°C goal can only be achieved through large-scale implementation of risky or expensive technologies, such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), direct air capture (DAC), or solar radiation management (SRM). These technologies may play a role in the future, but they cannot be relied upon to solve the current climate crisis.
A groundbreaking climate modeling framework, published in the book Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals (APCAG), shows that it is still possible to stay below 1.5°C with widely available, rapidly scalable solutions. The effort was the culmination of a two-year collaboration with 17 leading scientists at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), two institutes at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and the University of Melbourne’s Climate & Energy College. The book was released by the prestigious scientific publisher Springer Nature and is now the most downloaded climate text in the publisher’s history.
In order to create a global decarbonization model to achieve the 1.5°C goal, a sophisticated computer simulation of the world’s electrical grids was created with 10 regional and 72 sub-regional energy grids modeled in hourly increments to the year 2050, along with a comprehensive assessment of regionally available renewable resources like wind and solar, minerals required for manufacturing of components, energy efficiency measures, and configurations for meeting projected energy demand and electricity storage for all sectors through 2050. Below are the results for the India energy transition:
India can reach the 1.5°C goal with its large potential for PV power generation although it has limited CSP potential. Wind power potential is expected to be limited by land-use constraints, but the technical potential estimated from available meteorological data is large. Approximately 815 million people still rely on traditional biomass for cooking. Due to population and GDP growth, increasing living standards and increasing mobility, it is expected that overall energy demand will increase significantly. The nation has a large potential for energy efficiency and electrification. Under the 1.5C Scenario, new renewables, mainly wind, solar, and geothermal energy, will contribute 90% of the total electricity generation by 2050. Mouse over the charts below at 5-year increments to see data points for each transition.
This region includes India and Siachen Glacier. To explore the global transition model read the APCAG Executive Briefing.