Reports and Publications

The authors of this One Earth-supported paper lay out six principles that guide governments to achieve a high-quality protected area network, providing the best chance of halting and reversing biodiversity loss while upholding the rights of Indigenous Peoples and local communities.

Indigenous Peoples’ lands are important for conservation and socio-ecological well-being. Industrial development threatens these lands, but the magnitude and risk remain unclear. Here we employ a global index comprised of rights, representation, and capital indicators to assess conversion vulnerability and explore possible solutions. We find that almost 60% of Indigenous Peoples’ lands are threatened, and among the 37 countries with the highest threat, there are multiple vulnerabilities that increase the risk of conversion. To avoid or mitigate risk to both people and nature, it will be crucial to support Indigenous Peoples’ self-determination, rights, and leadership.

Natural climate solutions are being advanced to arrest climate warming by protecting and enhancing carbon capture and storage in plants, soils, and sediments in ecosystems. These solutions are viewed as having the ancillary benefit of protecting habitats and landscapes to conserve animal species diversity. However, this reasoning undervalues the role animals play in controlling the carbon cycle. This paper presents scientific evidence showing that protecting and restoring wild animals and their functional roles can enhance natural carbon capture and storage. The authors call for new thinking that includes the restoration and conservation of wild animals and their ecosystem roles as a key component of natural climate solutions that can enhance the ability to prevent climate warming beyond 1.5 °C.

Rangelands, holding 20% of the world’s soil carbon, have suffered significant carbon losses due to past management, threatening their productivity and sustainability. Compost amendments are proposed to boost soil carbon sequestration and provide multiple benefits. Research across eight countries and five continents shows that compost from green waste, food waste, manure, and biosolids increases aboveground production by over 40% and belowground carbon by 50%. Benefits include improved aggregate stability by 42%, water retention by 18%, and nutrient availability (nitrogen by 37% and phosphorus by 126%). Compost also reduces erosion, though with high variability, and minimally affects plant diversity. Few studies address soil microbial communities. Both field and modeling studies indicate long-term soil carbon storage from compost amendments, enhancing rangeland resilience to climate change and offering a viable climate mitigation strategy.

Composting food waste significantly reduces greenhouse gas emissions compared to landfilling, potentially saving 1.4 million metric tons of CO₂ equivalent in California by 2025. The study found that better management practices, like more frequent turning and less watering, could further lower these emissions.

New research makes it possible to calculate the emissions generated by a company’s cash and investments (cash, cash equivalents, and marketable securities). This research illuminates that this previously hidden emissions source is substantial. For some of the world’s largest companies, including Alphabet, Meta, Microsoft, and Salesforce, their cash and investments are their largest source of emissions. In fact, for Alphabet, Meta, and PayPal, the emissions generated by their cash and investments (financed emissions) exceed all their other emissions combined

The involvement of financial markets is critical to delivering effective and long-lasting solutions to mitigate climate change and reverse biodiversity loss. However, financial markets have not invested in ecosystem services because these are often valued based on non-market prices, which deter investments. Based on existing carbon market prices, we value the carbon services produced by forest elephants and show that wild animals’ carbon services are valuable enough to attract investors. This framework would facilitate the financing of conservation programs and local communities and broaden the portfolio of nature-based solutions to mitigate climate change.

Mature and old-growth forests (MOG) of the conterminous United States collectively support exceptional levels of biodiversity but have declined substantially from logging and development. National-scale proposals to protect 30 and 50% of all lands and waters are useful in assessing MOG conservation targets given the precarious status of these forests. We present the first coast to coast spatially explicit MOG assessment based on three structural development measures—canopy height, canopy cover, and above-ground living biomass to assess relative maturity.

Governments’ over-reliance on carbon removals could push ecosystems, land rights, and food security to the brink, with new land area equivalent to 50 percent of the world’s croplands currently being required to meet targets. Climate pledges should focus on protecting and restoring existing ecosystems with carbon benefits. 

Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) — national climate actions at the heart of the Paris Agreement — are a strategic opportunity for governments to integrate a food systems approach across their policies and programs in the name of climate mitigation. As the designated policy home where Paris signatories present how they’re going to reduce their emissions, the NDCs serve a collective way to track global progress on climate goals and signal whether global warming can stay well below the threshold of 1.5°C (2.7°F).

The role of nature restoration in mitigating the impacts of climate change is receiving increasing attention, yet the mitigation potential is often assessed in terms of carbon removal rather than the ability to meet temperature goals, such as those outlined in the Paris Agreement. Here, we estimate the global removal potential from nature restoration constrained by a “responsible development” framework and the contribution this would make to a 1.5°C temperature limit. Our constrained restoration options result in a median of 103 GtC (5%–95% range of −91 to 196 GtC) in cumulative removals between 2020 and 2100. When combined with deep-decarbonization scenarios, our restoration scenario briefly exceeds 1.5°C before declining to between 1.25°C and 1.5°C by 2100 (median, 50% probability). We conclude that additional carbon sequestration via nature restoration is unlikely to be done quickly enough to notably reduce the global peak temperatures expected in the next few decades. Land restoration is an important option for tackling climate change but cannot compensate for delays in reducing fossil fuel emissions.

Humanity faces a dual threat to its existence: climate change and biodiversity loss. The two risks are linked through human activity and an economic system that promotes growth at the expense of nature. Creating a nature-based economy can mitigate the dual risks and bring sustained, shared prosperity. The article shows how markets can be developed around the protection and regeneration of nature. Policies and actions needed to unleash the resources and innovation of markets to ensure that nature-based economic growth is shared and sustainable are specified. A nature-based economy ensures that conservation is a source of capital for development.

Climate change is commonly viewed as causing collateral damage to biodiversity. Wildlife species, particularly animals, are widely perceived as unwitting victims - passengers trapped aboard a ship on an ill-fated voyage. In reality, animals play a critical role in determining the course of the climate ship. From elephants to grasshoppers, sharks to sea otters, species of all descriptions, habitats, and climate zones impact global carbon exchange in different ways. Within a complex web of interactions, some have a greater impact than others, while the impact of the same species may vary from ecosystem to ecosystem. This report provides 10 case studies that showcase the diversity and complexity of the relationship between animals and the global carbon cycle, both in terrestrial and marine environments. They also demonstrate just how important it is to protect and restore wildlife populations as we look to address climate change.

Assemblages of large mammal species play a disproportionate role in the structure and composition of natural habitats. Loss of these assemblages destabilizes natural systems, while their recovery can restore ecological integrity. Here we take an ecoregion-based approach to identify landscapes that retain their historically present large mammal assemblages, and map ecoregions where reintroduction of 1–3 species could restore intact assemblages. Intact mammal assemblages occur across more than one-third of the 730 terrestrial ecoregions where large mammals were historically present, and 22% of these ecoregions retain complete assemblages across > 20% of the ecoregion area. Twenty species, if reintroduced or allowed to recolonize through improved connectivity, can increase the area of the world containing intact large mammal assemblages by 54% (11 116 000 km²). Each of these species have at least two large, intact habitat areas (> 10 000 km²) in a given ecoregion. Timely integration of recovery efforts for large mammals strengthens area-based targets being considered under the Convention on Biological Diversity.

'Amazonia Against the Clock,' a groundbreaking report organized by COICA and published by Indigenous leaders and researchers, presents new data on deforestation and reaffirms the critical role of Indigenous peoples in protecting 80% of the Amazon by 2025.

Digitalization, the adoption of digital technologies, is driving significant economic, social, and environmental changes. The future of humanity and the planet depends on how we manage this transformation. We have a chance to guide it toward a healthier, safer, and more equitable future, rather than worsening environmental degradation, inequality, and division. Global sustainability is not a guaranteed outcome of digitalization; it has already increased human impact on the environment and deepened societal inequalities. However, with conscious effort, digitalization can support a more sustainable and just world. This Action Plan outlines three key shifts and nine Impact Initiatives to inspire immediate collective action and collaboration.

The Renewable Target Mapping for the G20 provides an overview of the current state of renewable energy policy in G20 countries and outlines key recommendations for achieving the renewable power target of 70% by 2030. The report emphasizes the importance of setting clear and measurable targets for renewable energy and removing barriers to investment in renewable energy. It also highlights the need for collaboration among civil society, the business and financial sectors, think tanks, and politics to promote sustainable development. The report concludes by calling for increased resilience to the impacts of climate change and for actions that reflect equity and the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities.

The One Earth Climate Model (OECM) began as a research project supported by One Earth between the University of Technology Sydney, the German Aerospace Centre, and the University of Melbourne in 2017. They were tasked with developing a detailed 1.5˚C GHG trajectory for ten world regions without the continued use of fossil fuels or unproven technologies like carbon capture and storage. The results of the first model made it clear that it is still possible to limit warming to 1.5˚C with a rapid transition to 100% renewable energy sources. However, the model did not yet have the granularity the financial sector needed to guide and benchmark net-zero investments.  

The book, Achieving the Paris Climate Agreement Goals Part 2: Science-based Target Setting for the Finance Industry — Net-Zero Sectoral 1.5˚C Pathways for Real Economy Sectors, is designed as a continuation of this group’s 2019 first edition, which focused on country-specific energy pathways. Decarbonization pathways have been developed for countries, regions, and communities, but never before for industry sectors in a detailed way. While the book consists of 400 pages of dense methodologies and calculations, its topline message is clear; in the words of the lead author Sven Teske, “ We can limit global warming to 1.5˚C with the technology pathways we describe... I would call it an action plan to save the future for our children and their children."

This study investigates the impact of composted manure and green waste amendments on carbon sequestration in rangeland soils and their potential to reduce atmospheric CO₂ levels. It also examines how future climate changes might affect soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and greenhouse gas emissions in these ecosystems. Using the DayCent biogeochemical model, the researchers simulated the long-term effects of climate change on carbon dynamics in annual grasslands, both with and without compost amendments. The simulations, based on data from seven California grasslands, used climate projections from two Earth system models (CanESM2 and HadGEM-ES) and two emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) through 2100.

Limiting global warming to a 1.5°C temperature rise requires drastic emissions reductions and removal of carbon-dioxide from the atmosphere. Most modelled pathways for 1.5°C assume substantial removals in the form of biomass energy with carbon capture and storage, which brings with it increasing risks to biodiversity and food security via extensive land-use change. Recently, multiple efforts to describe and quantify potential removals via ecosystem-based approaches have gained traction in the climate policy discourse. However, these options have yet to be evaluated in a systematic and scientifically robust way. We provide spatially explicit estimates of ecosystem restoration potential quantified with a Dynamic Global Vegetation Model. Simulations covering forest restoration, reforestation, reduced harvest, agroforestry and silvopasture were combined and found to sequester an additional 93 Gt C by 2100, reducing mean global temperature increase by ∼0.12°C (5%–95% range 0.06°C–0.21°C) relative to a baseline mitigation pathway. Ultimately, pathways to achieving the 1.5°C goal garner broader public support when they include land management options that can bring about multiple benefits, including ecosystem restoration, biodiversity protection, and resilient agricultural practices.

Approximately 15% of global land is currently in some state of protection. Recent conservation research suggests the need for a drastic increase of protected lands by 2050. In order to reach this target, an additional 35% of lands need to be conserved or restored in a cost-effective and time-efficient manner in order to support the resiliency of our planet and its climate. While many individuals and foundations continue raising much-needed funding for the environment, the development of conservation portfolios is a complex, multi-dimensional task. Agencies have limited resources for investing in new conservation areas and have differing priorities for conservation in terms of species, land cover, human activities, etc. This paper presents an interactive conservation portfolio development system that combines visualization, multicriteria analysis, optimization, and decision-making to enable conservation planners and scientists to efficiently construct, compare, and modify conservation portfolios under multiple constraints.

Funders, impact investors, and integrated capital practitioners currently have the opportunity to catalyze momentum and reform in the US fiber and textile industry. A coordinated, strategic roadmap is critical to make the best use of integrated philanthropic and investment support. This research project drew on more than 60 interviews with fiber farmers and ranchers; processing businesses along the supply chain (mills, tanneries, etc.); brands and other supply chain experts; and funders and investors. Findings from these interviews have been synthesized and distilled into a seven-year financial Roadmap identifying five key Gaps and Levers where integrated philanthropic and investment capital would have the greatest impact in rebuilding the “missing middle” of the supply chain. In addition to the Roadmap, don't miss the 12 case studies highlighted in the report, which represent just a small slice of the innovative, place-based fiber system businesses that exist or are emerging across the country. Each one offers opportunities for funders and investors to deploy integrated capital approaches.

Global strategies to halt the dual crises of biodiversity loss and climate change are often formulated separately, even though they are interdependent and risk failure if pursued in isolation. The Global Safety Net maps how expanded nature conservation addresses both overarching threats. We identify 50% of the terrestrial realm that, if conserved, would reverse further biodiversity loss, prevent CO₂ emissions from land conversion, and enhance natural carbon removal. This framework shows that, beyond the 15.1% land area currently protected, 35.3% of land area is needed to conserve additional sites of particular importance for biodiversity and stabilize the climate. Fifty ecoregions and 20 countries contribute disproportionately to proposed targets. Indigenous lands overlap extensively with the Global Safety Net. Conserving the Global Safety Net could support public health by reducing the potential for zoonotic diseases like COVID-19 from emerging in the future.

This working paper analyzes the economic implications of the proposed 30% target for areal protection in the draft post-2020 Global Biodiversity Framework. The paper argues that expanding protected areas to 30% by 2030 would boost economic growth, biodiversity conservation, and climate resilience. Policymakers should invest in conservation to secure long-term financial and ecological benefits.

This report by the Partnership for Policy Integrity (PFPI) provides a scientific and legal analysis of why “sustainability” protections in the EU’s recast Renewable Energy Directive (RED II) provide cover for continued logging, GHG emissions, and forest damage from biomass harvesting.

The World Future Council and La Ruta del Clima/Costa Rica commissioned this report financed by One Earth to provide input into Costa Rica’s plan to achieve 100% renewable energy. Costa Rica is a global leader when it comes to ensuring energy production comes from renewable energy sources. With a 98% share of renewables in its electricity matrix and solid achievements to prevent deforestation—around 25% of the country’s land area is in protected National Parks and other protected areas—Costa Rica is at the forefront of environmental sustainability, climate action, and driving the renewable energy transition.

In November 2018, Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity adopted at the 14th Conference of the Parties a definition of an "other effective area-based conservation measure" (OECM) as well as guiding principles, common characteristics and criteria for identification of OECMs (CBD/COP/DEC/14/8). OECMs may be managed for many different objectives but they must deliver effective conservation. They may be managed with conservation as a primary or secondary objective or long-term conservation may simply be the ancillary result of management activities. OECMs can contribute to ecologically representative and well-connected conservation systems, integrated within wider landscapes and seascapes, and in doing so, generate a range of positive conservation outcomes. The WCPA Task Force on OECMs has produced these guidelines to assist Parties in interpreting and operationalising Decision 14/8 and to start to develop a body of good practice around recognising and reporting OECMs. It is designed for application at various scales, ranging from understanding whether an individual area is an OECM to reporting OECM statistics at the national and global level as a means to assess progress on achieving conservation targets.

This research indicates a tripling in global vulnerability to sea-level rise and coastal flooding due to updated elevation data. Traditional methods underrepresent the potential impact of flooding, highlighting areas previously thought to be safe. Advanced satellite data is instrumental in identifying the true risk by providing more accurate elevation information. Over 300 million people globally are now estimated to be living on land at risk of annual flooding by 2050. Technology plays a crucial role in adaptation strategies, necessitating upgraded infrastructure and emergency protocols. The findings emphasize the urgent need for international cooperation and action to mitigate climate change impacts. Better data accuracy is imperative for future planning, requiring continual updates and refinements in elevation mapping.

At the core of our work is the groundbreaking One Earth Climate Model, which provides a roadmap for limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5°C. This research, supported by One Earth, was the culmination of a two-year collaboration with 17 leading scientists at the University of Technology Sydney (UTS), two institutes at the German Aerospace Center (DLR), and the University of Melbourne's Climate & Energy College. The 500-page book was released by the prestigious scientific publisher Springer Nature and has quickly become the most downloaded climate text in the publisher's history, cited in dozens of scientific papers. It provides the least-cost pathways for decarbonizing our energy system and shows the powerful role forests and agricultural systems can play.

The Global Deal for Nature (GDN) is a time-bound, science-driven plan to save the diversity and abundance of life on Earth. Pairing the GDN and the Paris Climate Agreement would avoid catastrophic climate change, conserve species, and secure essential ecosystem services. New findings give urgency to this union: Less than half of the terrestrial realm is intact, yet conserving all native ecosystems—coupled with energy transition measures—will be required to remain below a 1.5°C rise in average global temperature. The GDN targets 30% of Earth to be formally protected and an additional 20% designated as climate stabilization areas, by 2030, to stay below 1.5°C. We highlight the 67% of terrestrial ecoregions that can meet 30% protection, thereby reducing extinction threats and carbon emissions from natural reservoirs. Freshwater and marine targets included here extend the GDN to all realms and provide a pathway to ensuring a more livable biosphere.

This guide, supported by One Earth, focuses on philanthropic and investment opportunities to promote healthy soils and soil carbon sequestration (SCS) primarily through changes in agricultural practices in the United States and globally. Focus topics and strategic system game changers include waste to compost, geographic hotspots, peatlands, ecological restoration & green infrastructure as well as irrigated rice. It provides an initial roadmap for investing in healthy soils to help cool the planet and enhance resilience.

This report emphasizes the transformative potential of nature-based solutions in global water management strategies, outlining their cost-effectiveness and broad applicability for over 3,200 cities. These strategies, encompassing protection, restoration, and sustainable management of ecosystems like forests and wetlands, are crucial for enhancing water quality, ensuring water availability, and protecting biodiversity. Despite the proven benefits and substantial investments in restoration projects, the adoption of nature-based solutions remains insufficient. Traditional engineering approaches often overshadow these sustainable practices in water management policies. However, various success stories of large-scale restorations and community-led initiatives underscore the multifaceted benefits of nature-based strategies, advocating for their integration into national water plans for improved water security and overall environmental resilience.

The peak in fossil fuel demand will have a dramatic impact on financial markets in the 2020s. The global energy system is transitioning from a system mainly based on fossil fuels to one mainly based on renewable energy sources. The shift will involve near-term peaking of fossil fuel demand, an S curve of renewable growth, and the endgame for fossil fuel demand.

Mangrove deforestation threatens to release large stores of carbon from soils that are vulnerable to oxidation. Carbon stored in deep soils is not measured in national carbon inventories. Thus, policies on emission reductions have likely underestimated the contribution of mangrove deforestation to national emissions. This paper estimates that emissions from deforestation and degradation of mangroves in Mexico are 31 times greater than the values used to determine national emission reduction targets for the Paris Agreement. Thus, Mexico has vastly undervalued the potential of mangrove protection to reduce its emissions. Accounting for carbon emissions from mangrove soils should greatly increase the priority of mangrove forests to receive funding for protection under carbon trading programs.

For the world to reverse global warming, eliminate millions of annual air-pollution deaths, and provide secure energy, every country must have an energy roadmap based on widely available, reliable, zero-emission energy technologies. This study presents such roadmaps for 139 countries of the world. These roadmaps are far more aggressive than what the Paris agreement calls for, but are still technically and economically feasible. The solution is to electrify all energy sectors (transportation, heating/ cooling, industry, agriculture/ forestry/fishing) and provide all electricity with 100% wind, water, and solar (WWS) power. If fully implemented by 2050, the roadmaps will enable the world to avoid 1.5C global warming and millions of annual air-pollution deaths, create 24.3 million net new long-term, full-time jobs, reduce energy costs to society, reduce energy end-use by 42.5%, reduce power disruption, and increase worldwide access to energy